More specifically, for physical risks, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) correspond to defined emissions and global warming levels. Each RCP scenario is modeled by the scientific community in terms of physical impacts. In particular, we have considered the RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios:

• The RCP8.5 scenario is the most extreme of the business-as-usual scenarios. It forecasts an increase above 4°C by 2100. This scenario can translate into reality if the world adopts no mitigation policy. High economic and population growth rates (SSP5) favor this scenario. This scenario triggers most of the climate “points of non-return” and hence, its consequences are difficult to model;
• The RCP4.5 scenario is the most probable given current pledges by countries. It forecasts an increase in temperature between 2 to 3°C by the end of the century, well above the limits of Paris 2015 and Kyoto Protocol. Pledges as of October 2022 lead to an increase of 2.5°C by 2100, as calculated by the United Nations; and
• The RCP2.6 scenario is a Paris/Kyoto one and foresees emissions approximately at the same levels of today (below 1.5°C by 2100 ).

Each climate scenario is characterized by different levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. Specifically, we considered a pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), an intermediate scenario (RCP 4.5) and a more optimistic scenario (RCP 2.6) to assess the various situations we might face.